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No-deal Brexit is back -- and it looks more likely than ever
Analysis by Luke McGee, CNN
Feb 29, 2020
London (CNN) - The United Kingdom left the European Union on January 31. The world has since been mercifully quiet on the matter, and you'd be forgiven for assuming Brexit was over.
Wishful thinking. The UK is not yet a month into its "transition period" with the EU, during which the country continues to play by EU rules while a future relationship is negotiated. That period ends on December 31.
On Monday, the two sides will finally sit down to negotiate what that future relationship looks like. And if the published priorities from London and Brussels are anything to go by, it's going to be a bloodbath.
While both want a free trade agreement and close alignment, they also believe that the other is trying to suddenly change the rules of engagement.
Ruptures between the EU and UK are nothing new in Brexit, but this time it's a little different. The clock is ticking faster, the political landscape has changed, and no one knows how much good will there is. Unless a major breakthrough or concession happens in the coming weeks, it's hard to see how this concludes any way other than the UK's transition period ending with no formal deal.
What does the UK want?
On paper, the UK's goals are straightforward. It wants a free trade agreement with the EU similar to the one that Canada enjoys. The EU's deal with Canada is substantial. It removes the need for most (but not all) tariffs on goods traded between the two. However, it does very little on financial services, the most important sector in the British economy.
It's worth remembering that the UK and EU currently trade with zero tariffs and close to zero tariff barriers, so whatever trade deal is reached is still ultimately a question of how much friction will exist, which is a highly unorthodox starting point in trade talks.
This, however, is what the UK wants. Why? Because more than trade, what Prime Minister Boris Johnson really wants is to guarantee the UK's independence from Brussels.
Sticking points
This is where things could get nasty. The EU also wants a trade deal with the UK and is entirely happy with it being a Canada-style deal. Where the two sides really disagree is on the pre-conditions for any deal. And it's more of a political row than anything else.
"While there are clearly disagreements when it comes to the EU's preconditions for negotiating a trade deal -- particularly over fish, the role of the European Court of Justice, and the exact nature of the level playing field requirements -- when it comes to what the future economic partnership actually looks like, the EU and UK really aren't that far apart," says the Centre for European Reform's Samuel Lowe.
The 541-page Withdrawal Agreement signed off last autumn was accompanied by a 31-page document known as the Political Declaration. In it, the two sides talk of their mutual desire for a comprehensive trade deal, close cooperation on standards ranging from environmental to workers' rights, and an acknowledgment that geography and history make the relationship unique. Both sides agreed this must be done in a way that respects the EU's internal priorities, while also respecting the UK's sovereignty.
Which sounds awfully chummy, until you realize that those areas of sovereignty somewhat cut across the EU's priorities. And this means that before talks have even started, the familiar blame game between Brussels and London is in full force.
"Now we have both sides' formal starting positions in this next round of talks, we can see that there are a substantial number of basic incompatibilities," says Simon Usherwood, Professor in Politics at the University of Surrey.
Fish bones of contention
Let's start with fish. Despite its relatively small economic importance in the grand scheme of things, there is a romantic idea of fishing communities that resonates with some European voters.
In the UK, the argument goes something like, "The EU's Common Fisheries Policy has wrecked our fishing industry." The same could be said in French fishing communities if the EU fails to reach an agreement on how much access French fishermen have to British waters. It matters very much to French fishermen because fish have an annoying habit of not respecting borders. And in elections, romantic arguments can become very powerful.
"Fisheries is a big problem, as the EU want to keep much of the effect of the Common Fisheries Policy, if not the policy itself, while the UK want a much looser arrangement," says Usherwood. "Given how much both sides have laid weight on what is actually an economically very small sector, this will make it all the more difficult to resolve."
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